It’s now a few days past the presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, and I confess that I’m still trying to process the situation in terms of the 2024 presidential race. I assume many of you are in the same situation. It’s safe to say we’re in uncharted territory here, as I don’t think there’s ever been an election like this in American history. Especially not one with so much seemingly at stake for democracy. I don’t have any great answers, but I do have thoughts about various debate and election-related topics.
So here goes. Feel free to chime in with comments.
Biden’s debate performance
There is no sugarcoating Joe Biden’s disastrous debate performance last week. He looked old on stage, and like someone who had trouble forming coherent sentences. Not only did he play into the doubt and unease many voters feel about his age, he exacerbated them.
It’s true that many incumbent presidents have a bad first debate because being in office doesn’t sharpen those skills in the way that campaigning does. And Biden has done better in various events since the debate, so he may well have just had a bad night. It’s happened to Barack Obama, George Bush, and Ronald Reagan, among others. However, as Tim Miller notes, those candidates were all already leading their races – and none of their performances was anywhere near as bad as Biden’s. See his piece for video evidence of some comparisons.
What Biden’s performance also shows, to a degree, is the difference between the skills needed for governing versus campaigning. The truth is, Biden has actually had a successful presidency. You don’t need to take my word for this, just check out some of these pieces in Politico, Vox, or The Hill. Or see the thoughts of former Republican political strategist Stuart Stevens in The New Republic.
So what gives? Is Biden competent behind the scenes while simultaneously losing his fastball as a campaigner? I’m open to that possibility, but the reality is that none of us knows. So we’re left with a great deal of uncertainty, and with the uncomfortable knowledge that one more performance like that debate might effectively kill his chances at re-election.
What about Trump?
Obviously, neither America nor the world would benefit from having a feeble, declining U.S. president in office (if that in fact describes Biden). But -- even more so -- neither America nor the world needs a vindictive, bullying, lying, authoritarian as U.S. president either. Especially one who seems hellbent on destroying all norms of political behavior and possibly damaging American democracy beyond all repair.
So I understand the handwringing about Biden. What I don’t understand is why Trump is being treated by so many people as something akin to a normal candidate. I know, I know, his crazy is baked into voter perceptions, but that doesn’t make it any more understandable.
I mean, set aside the fact that we’d be electing a convicted felon – and a convicted rapist – to the presidency. Even before that, Trump should be disqualified by voters for the simple fact that he tried to overturn the results of a democratic election and is still not promising to abide by the results of any vote that he may lose! Is this the person who is going to take an oath of office next January to “preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States?”
Moreover, in the debate where Biden looked old and fumbled his words, Trump lied incessantly. Which, sure, is the norm for someone who lied more than 30,000 times during one term in office. Nevertheless, in the debate, Trump lied about the 2020 election, about Roe v. Wade, about Biden’s record, about immigration, about covid, about Ukraine, even about his sex life. Will Saletan has a rundown of some of the lies here. There were many more. Trump “won” the debate only because he didn’t seem as feeble. In no other universe would Trump’s debate performance be considered anywhere near normal.
So while the NY Times was calling for Biden to step aside, the Philadelphia Inquirer was asking the same question I’m asking here and suggesting that Trump is in fact the one who shouldn’t be in the race:
In fact, the debate about the debate is misplaced. The only person who should withdraw from the race is Trump.
But while Democrats are at least talking and taking seriously the idea that Biden maybe shouldn’t be the nominee, Republicans are all in on Trump. WTH?
The Kamala Harris conundrum
Like many people, I do wish Biden had found a way to retire gracefully after one successful term in office and left the party to the next generation. Why he didn’t do that, only he knows. Obviously, presidents have egos and aren’t the type to want to step away from the job. And Biden is genuinely offended by Trump and his attacks on democracy. He defeated Trump once before and seems to have believed he was best positioned to do so again. The party went along because parties tend to defer to sitting presidents.
But the other reason everyone went along is that most people thought Kamala Harris would be a worse candidate than Biden. (Including, apparently, Biden himself, if you believe most reports about this.) If Biden had stepped aside, Harris would have been the overwhelming favorite for the nomination, simply because incumbent vice presidents are rarely defeated in party primaries. So, for many, Biden just seemed like the better bet.
But it’s worth noting that the seeds for this conundrum were planted four years ago when Biden selected Harris as his running mate. She wasn’t a slam dunk choice, as she didn’t impress in her own presidential campaign. When the 2020 nomination battle kicked off, I expected to be impressed by Harris — but the reality was underwhelming, to say the least, which is why she dropped out before the first votes were cast in Iowa. And she’s done nothing to change that impression since then.
If I can use a baseball reference, Harris strikes me as the quintessential 4A player. That is, a ball player who does great in the minor leagues, all the way up the AAA level, but just can’t cut it in the majors. Maybe he can’t hit a major league curveball, or whatever. So he’s stuck in between, a 4A player. The same thing happens in politics all the time. See Ron DeSantis, Scott Walker, Rick Perry, and many others. Presidential politics is a different level, some people can rise to the occasion, some can’t.
Harris was a successful Senator, but she so far hasn’t shown the tools to make the presidential leap. Maybe she wouldn’t need to be a great candidate if she were mostly prosecuting a case against Trump for a few months, but still, the prospects aren’t comforting.
What’s interesting to contemplate is what 2024 might look like if Harris wasn’t put on the ticket with Biden four years ago. One can make a persuasive case that, if the George Floyd case hadn’t upended national politics that year, Harris never would have been selected and that someone like Amy Klobuchar may have been the v.p. nominee. Klobuchar acquitted herself quite a bit better than Harris did during the 2020 primaries and was from a more important region of the country in terms of electoral votes.
So here’s a hypothetical: If Klobuchar were now the incumbent vice president and were more popular than Harris is at the moment, would Biden have been more open to not running this year? Would Democrats have been more amenable to suggesting that Biden should step aside? We’ll never know. But there is certainly a nonzero chance that the politics of 2024 are stuck in place because of the politics of 2020.
Even if Biden were to step away, it’s unclear what comes next
Since the debate, there have numerous calls from political pundits and op-ed writers for Biden to step aside and let a younger Democrat take on Trump.
There would be some benefits to such a scenario. The age question would go away. The revolt by young people and liberals over the Israel-Gaza war would likely go away. The election would be more focused on the future than on the past.
It all sounds great in theory, but the reality isn’t quite so simple.
For starters, Democratic convention delegates have been pledged to Biden, so unless he voluntarily steps down and releases his delegates there is almost no way to deny Biden the nomination. And early indications are that Biden has no plans whatsoever to go away.
And even if the president did choose to retire, the situation remains complicated.
The most likely replacement for Biden would still be Harris, who comes with her own weaknesses, as discussed. Others who have been prominently mentioned as potential Biden replacements are Governors Gavin Newsom of California and Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan. Newsom, like Harris, also happens to be a liberal from San Francisco. And while I have nothing in particular against liberals from San Francisco, they don’t usually play well on the national level. It’s just tough to overcome that label in middle America.
Whitmer, on the other hand, does fit the profile of someone who should be a slam dunk as a candidate. A female governor who is popular and has won twice statewide in an important state in the upper Midwest. Then again, are we sure she would do well? Remember, 4A players. No one knows until you try to compete on that level. Is that a risk Democrats want to take?
Klobuchar and Pete Buttigieg have been vetted in a national race, and during the 2020 primaries they showed at least some of the skills necessary to compete on the presidential level. But they did lose to Biden, so again, no guarantees.
So, yeah, one can argue that perhaps a Klobuchar-Whitmer ticket could be a winner. An all-female ticket from the oh so important upper Midwest. Or Whitmer-Buttigieg. Or Whitmer paired with Sen. Raphael Warnock or Sen. Corey Booker. Or with Gov. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, bringing together two popular governors from two of the most vital states for Democrats this year. But can we guarantee one of these options (or a similar one) would emerge from an open Democratic convention? And how many bruised feelings might there be after a floor fight over nominees just two months from election day? Especially if Harris were passed over for the top job?
Even if the party did unite easily behind a candidate, would a new nominee inherit the Biden campaign staff and infrastructure? Or need to build her or his own staff, just weeks out from election day? What about fundraising? Biden has raised tens of millions of dollars that can’t just be transferred to a different candidate, aside possibly from Harris.
I have no good answers. Do you?
The election stakes
All of the above complications are avoided if Biden remains the nominee. But … what if he really isn’t up to the job of defeating Trump? Does that mean Democrats are throwing in the towel and turning the country over to a would-be authoritarian who might end democracy as we know it?
The stakes for this election have always been high. And they seem to be getting higher by the day.
As I was working on this piece today, the Supreme Court issued a ruling giving presidents immunity from prosecution for all “official acts.” What defines an official act? That is still not formally defined. However, Trump has already moved to have his conviction in the Manhattan hush money trial overturned based on this decision, and his lawyers previously argued that an act as brazen as having a political opponent assassinated would be covered by an immunity ruling.
Most distressing is Justice Sonia Sotomayor’s stunning dissent in the case:
The President of the United States is the most powerful person in the country, and possibly the world. When he uses his official powers in any way, under the majority’s reasoning, he now will be insulated from criminal prosecution. Orders the Navy’s Seal Team 6 to assassinate a political rival? Immune. Organizes a military coup to hold onto power? Immune. Takes a bribe in exchange for a pardon? Immune. Immune, immune, immune.
Let the President violate the law, let him exploit the trappings of his office for personal gain, let him use his official power for evil ends. Because if he knew that he may one day face liability for breaking the law, he might not be as bold and fearless as we would like him to be. That is the majority’s message today.
Even if these nightmare scenarios never play out, and I pray they never do, the damage has been done. The relationship between the President and the people he serves has shifted irrevocably. In every use of official power, the President is now a king above the law.
Read that again, and tell me it’s not a terrifying thought for the future of American democracy.
Meanwhile, what has Trump been doing for the past two days? Musing about jailing his political opponents! He reposted this, among other things, on Truth Social:
Yes, televised military tribunals for his political opponents.
I promise you, the Founders never envisioned anything like this.
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I too am at a loss. I do hope that Biden steps aside, but doubt that he will. That said, I believe many planning to vote for Biden were primarily planning to vote against letting Trump get back in office.
I became an American citizen in 2008, believing that America was a great nation, but I have certainly lost faith in that notion. It has been so obvious from the very beginning of his candidacy in 2015 that Trump is amoral. His words, deeds, criminality have shown us every day since then that he is completely unworthy, yet he has a large cult following that and the vast majority of elected Republicans are too cowardly to speak truth to power.
Yesterday's supreme court (lower case intended) ruling on immunity has me feeling that there is little hope for this country. Having already delayed hearing the case for more than six months, they rule that he essentially is immune from prosecution for anything he has already done and likely will do much more of if re-elected. And this after he tried to steal the election. Sonia Sotomayor's words are true and chilling. It's like the conservative member of the court are doing Trump's bidding. And he appointed three of the six that made this incredulous ruling. Are we living in a Banana Republic?
That ruling has made it all the more imperative that the Democratic Party candidate MUST defeat Trump. Now it is about even more than saving our democracy, but also fixing a radical and corrupt supreme court.